| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | SE Louisiana | 24-0 | 1229.4 | +0.0 | 1229.4 | 17.4% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | LSU | 7-23 | 1229.4 | -1.8 | 1227.6 | 2.9% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | New Mexico State | 49-14 | 1227.6 | +38.8 | 1266.4 | 46.5% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | Southern Miss | 30-20 | 1266.4 | +25.7 | 1292.1 | 62.7% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | UTEP | 30-11 | 1292.1 | +31.1 | 1323.2 | 70.4% |
| 8 | Oct 9 2025 | L | Kennesaw State | 7-35 | 1323.2 | -38.3 | 1284.9 | 52.9% |
| 10 | Oct 21 2025 | L | Western Kentucky | 27-28 | 1284.9 | -24.6 | 1260.3 | 22.9% |
| 11 | Oct 31 2025 | W | Sam Houston | 55-14 | 1260.3 | +33.3 | 1293.6 | 53.0% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | L | Delaware | 24-25 | 1293.6 | -24.2 | 1269.4 | 35.4% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | Washington State | 3-28 | 1269.4 | -23.7 | 1245.7 | 34.6% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | Liberty | 34-28 | 1245.7 | +47.6 | 1293.3 | 36.5% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | Missouri State | 42-30 | 1293.3 | +69.9 | 1363.2 | 22.8% |
| 20 | Dec 30 2025 | W | Coastal Carolina | 23-14 | 1363.2 | +48.9 | 1412.1 | 42.5% |